Nkinda, RoseOjija, Fredrick2025-07-232025-07-232025-07-21doi: 10.36922/AJWEP025180137https://repository.must.ac.tz/handle/123456789/349This article was published by ACCScience in 2025Land use and land cover (LULC) surrounding the Ngerengere River, Tanzania, which is a crucial water source, has led to a rapid decline in vegetated areas. Understanding these changes is vital for informed decision making and sustainable river catchment management. This study assessed historical LULC trends from 2004 to 2024, projected the current trend of change to 2034, and analyzed the human activities driving the trends using Landsat TM imagery. The study utilized both spatial and non-spatial datasets from primary sources (Landsat imagery via Google Earth Engine and field surveys) and secondary sources (literature and government reports). Landsat 5 (2004) and Landsat 8 (2014, 2024) images were processed using Arc-GIS and QGIS to minimize cloud interference. Land cover classification combined unsupervised and supervised methods, validated with ground reference points collected through GPS. A rule-based classification system used spectral indices to identify land cover types. Classified maps were visualized and exported for further analysis. Furthermore, systematic field visits were conducted along the catchment to assess human land use activities, that is, agriculture, settlements, and deforestation. Results revealed a 17.6% decline in sparse vegetation between 2004 and 2014, and a further 27.01% decrease from 2014 to 2024. Bare land increased by 8.58% over the two decades. Built-up areas rose from 0.67% in 2004 to 5.44% in 2014, then dropped to 2.1% in 2024. In contrast, dense vegetation increased from 0.04% in 2004 to 7.13% in 2024. Overall, the land cover projection for 2034 indicates continued ecological transformation within the Ngerengere River catchment. These shifts, primarily driven by agricultural expansion and deforestation, underscore the urgent need for sustainable land management. The significant vegetation cover decline in the catchment is largely due to agricultural encroachment into forested areas.en-USArticle