Modeling the implications of seasonality and heterogeneous mean worm burden in Guinea-worm disease dynamics in dog population
No Thumbnail Available
Date
2025-05-26
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Elsevier
Abstract
Prior to 2012, it was believed that only humans could host Guinea-worm disease. Recent
findings show that dogs also act as hosts. With the 2030 goal for eradicating Guinea-worm
approaching, understanding dogs’ roles is crucial. We develop a mathematical model to study
seasonal Guinea-worm disease, focusing on dogs as primary hosts, given the low human cases.
Our model includes seasonal variations, as previous studies indicate that disease prevalence is
linked to seasonal fisheries. We also categorize infectious dogs based on their average worm
burden. Our analysis examines how dog screening and tethering influence disease dynamics.
Results indicate that both strategies can lower disease transmission. However, they may not be
enough for total eradication on their own. Therefore, we suggest combining these methods with
additional actions, like dog culling, to improve disease control.
Description
This Journal Article was published by Elsevier in 2025