A delayed fractional-order model of Ebola virus disease with human behavioral dynamics
| dc.contributor.author | Lusekelo Eva, Helikumi Mlyashimbi, Daudi Salamida | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2026-05-31T14:43:35Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2026-05-20 | |
| dc.description.abstract | This study presents a fractional-order mathematical model to examine the transmission dynamics of Ebola Virus Disease, explicitly incorporating incubation delays, human behavioral responses, and socio-cultural funeral practices. Caputo fractional derivatives are employed to represent memory effects, capturing the complex temporal evolution of outbreaks. Conditions for the local stability of disease-free and endemic equilibria are derived. Numerical bifurcation analysis indicates that increasing the incubation delay 𝜏 beyond a critical threshold 𝜏∗ ≈ 2.5 days induces a Hopf bifurcation, resulting in sustained oscillations in infection levels. Additionally, increasing 𝜏 from 1 to 3 days delays the epidemic peak by approximately 10 days and elevates peak infections from 1200 to over 10,000 cases. The model further demonstrates that higher proportions (𝑝1 > 0.4) of unmonitored deaths due to socio-cultural burial practices increase the outbreak size by 35%, highlighting the importance of cultural interventions. The fractional order 𝑞 influences oscillatory behaviors; as 𝑞 approaches 1, peak infection levels rise by 20%. These findings emphasize the significance of integrating cultural, behavioral, and delay effects into Ebola control strategies. | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://repository.must.ac.tz/handle/123456789/621 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.publisher | Elsevier | |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | Results in Control and Optimization; 23 | |
| dc.subject | Ebola virus disease | |
| dc.subject | Human behavioral response | |
| dc.subject | Mathematical modeling | |
| dc.subject | Infectious disease dynamics | |
| dc.title | A delayed fractional-order model of Ebola virus disease with human behavioral dynamics | |
| dc.type | Article |