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Recent Submissions
Modelling campylobacteriosis dynamics: Impacts of contaminated animal products and environmental decontamination interventions
(ELSEVIER, 2025-09-09) Trazias, Herman; Lusekelo, Eva; Sakran, Abass Kasim
Campylobacteriosis is responsible for approximately 500 million cases of illness globally each
year. Globally, human campylobacteriosis infections and contaminated animal products cause
an estimated loss of 8.6 and 12.6 billion US dollars annually, respectively. The disease is
transmitted through consumption of contaminated foods and water, licking unsanitary hands
and contact with infected hosts. As global demand for animal products like meat and milk
continues to grow, the transmission of campylobacteriosis through these products has become
a critical concern. This study aims at utilising mathematical modelling and analysis techniques
to quantify the effects of contaminated animal products and environmental decontamination
interventions on campylobacteriosis dynamics in host populations. A mathematical model as a
system of ordinary differential equations is proposed with human and cattle populations and
contaminated animal products. The next-generation matrix method is applied to compute the
effective reproduction number that describes disease persistence and extinction. The global
stability of equilibria states is examined using the Lyapunov stability theory. The uncertainty
and sensitivity of model parameters are examined using the Latin Hypercube Sampling and
Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient methods. Model fitting and parameter estimations are
performed using the least squares method alongside the human cases from January to August
for the years 2017 to 2020 in the EU. The analysis indicates that the disease-free and endemic
equilibria are globally asymptotically stable whenever < 1 and > 1, respectively. The
numerical results show that the ingestion rates of contaminated animal products, shedding rates
and the natural replication rates of Campylobacter jejuni bacteria are directly proportional to
, while the environmental cleanliness and the decay rate of Campylobacter jejuni bacteria are
inversely proportional to . In order to reduce the impact of contaminated animal products,
the study recommends a couple of strategies for reducing shedding rates, killing bacteria, and
vaccinating infected hosts.
Artificial intelligence-driven solutions for mitigating human–wildlife conflict in biodiversity hotspots
(SCIENCE PROGRESS, 2025) Ojija, Fredrick; Ogwu , Matthew C.
Biodiversity hotspots are biologically rich yet highly threatened regions that play a critical role in global conservation but often serve as epicentres of human–wildlife conflict
(HWC). HWC poses major conservation and development challenges, undermining
both human livelihoods and wildlife protection efforts. Artificial intelligence (AI) offers
transformative tools for mitigating HWC by enhancing monitoring, prediction, and decision support. Through systematic searches of peer-reviewed and grey literature, this
review analyzed 105 studies (1990–2025) from 163 screened sources, revealing that
AI improved HWC monitoring (65%), predictive accuracy (47%), and community
engagement (39%). AI-driven technologies such as machine learning, deep learning,
and computer vision enable conservationists to process large datasets, automate species
identification, and make real-time decisions. Integrated platforms like Earth Ranger and
Quantifying the Public Health Effects of Vaccine Hesitancy and Delays in Screening Clinically Infected Patients: Insights From a COVID-19 Transmission Model
(International Journal of Mathematical Sciences and Optimization, 2025-09-20) Lolika ,Paride O; Helikumi, Mlyashimbi,; Sube, Kenneth; Mushayabasa, Steady
Motivated by the recent COVID-19 outbreak, we develop a time delay infectious disease
model that incorporates vaccination and screening of clinically infected patients and calibrate
it using Chinese data to understand the quantitative implications of vaccine hesitancy and
delay in the screening of clinically infected patients. Vaccine hesitancy refers to the denial or
delay in acceptance of vaccines despite their availability. Understanding the implications of
vaccine hesitancy is therefore essential for designing public health interventions. Analysis of
the model revealed that whenever R0 ≤ 1, there exists a globally asymptotically disease-free
equilibrium. However, whenever R0 > 1, there exists a unique endemic equilibrium which is
globally asymptotically stable. In addition, results also show that vaccine hesitancy and delay
in hospitalizing clinically infected patients have a stronger impact on the deaths toll and new
infections generated [1,2]. Vaccine hesitancy and delayed screening of clinically infected patients
lead to harmonic oscillations in deaths and new cases, which, however, die out over time. Our
findings underscore the importance of including vaccine hesitancy and delay in hospitalizing
clinically infected patients in the design of control strategies for infectious diseases.
Unveiling the Hidden Risks: Heavy Metal Concentrations in Soil and Vegetables Irrigated with Kalobe Wastewater Stabilization Ponds, Mbeya, Tanzania
(ELSEVIER, 2025-10-24) Azaria,Stephano Lameck; Mlelwa, Dickson; Chagu, John; Sanga, Victor; Melkizedeck, Hiiti Tsere; Malunguja, Gisandu K.; Mwakalesi, Alinanuswe Joel
This study evaluated the concentrations of heavy metals in wastewater, soil, and tomatoes and Napa cabbage
irrigated with effluent from the Kalobe Wastewater Stabilization Pond (KWWSP) in Mbeya, Tanzania. Human
health risks were assessed using Chronic Daily Intake (CDI), Target Hazard Quotient (THQ), Hazard Index (HI),
and Target Cancer Risk (TCR) indices. The results showed that cadmium (Cd) in all ponds was below the FAO/
WHO permissible limits, while lead (Pb) and chromium (Cr) were below detection levels. Heavy metals in soil
were found in the order of Pb (5.95 mg/kg) > Cr (0.63 mg/kg) > Cd (0.25 mg/kg), all within FAO/WHO
acceptable limits, indicating suitability for agricultural use. Cd levels in Tomatoes (0.14 mg/kg) and Napa cabbage
(0.40 mg/kg) exceeded permissible limits. Cr levels in the Tomato and Napa Cabbage were 1.87 and
2.10 mg/kg, respectively, and were close to the safety threshold, suggesting health concerns with long-term
consumption. Cd exposure through vegetable intake was within but near acceptable limits, while Cr exposure,
particularly for Napa cabbage, exceeded recommended safety thresholds. This resulted in elevated noncarcinogenic
risks (THQ and HI>1) and carcinogenic risks (TCR above the USEPA’s acceptable range). These findings
suggest that consuming wastewater-irrigated Tomatoes and Napa cabbage may pose human health risks.
Continuous monitoring of heavy metals, safe irrigation alternatives, and cropping restrictions using inadequately
treated wastewater is essential to safeguard public health and long-term environmental sustainability.
Spatial assessment of water quality in a hierarchically structured river system using stream order classification and multivariate statistical techniques: A case study from Tunduma, Tanzania
(ACC Science, 2025-11-17) William, Matungwa; Katambara , Zacharia; Shegwando, Omari
Water quality assessment is essential for understanding pollutant dynamics, supporting evidence-based watershed management, and protecting public health. While numerous studies have utilized statistical and modeling approaches, limited attention has been paid to how stream order influences water quality variability, particularly in urban catchments of sub-Saharan Africa. This study investigates spatial patterns of water quality in a hierarchically structured stream network in Tunduma, Tanzania, by integrating Strahler stream order classification with multivariate statistical techniques, based on monthly monitoring of six surface water points over 12 months (n = 72) during both wet and dry seasons to analyze physicochemical, nutrient, and microbial parameters. Hierarchical cluster analysis, combined with Pearson correlation matrices and significance testing, was employed to assess pollutant similarity and accumulation patterns across different stream orders. Results revealed that phosphate (PO4 3−) concentrations ranged from 0.42 to 1.49 mg/L and nitrate (NO3 − ) levels ranged from 4.3 to 13.2 mg/L. Strong positive correlations (r > 0.95) were observed among ion-derived parameters, such as electrical conductivity, total dissolved solids, and the concentrations of calcium (Ca2+) and magnesium (Mg2+). Third-order stream segments exhibited elevated concentrations of total suspended solids (0.990), biochemical oxygen demand (0.982), and microbial indicators, with fecal coliforms of 0–5 CFU/100 mL and total coliforms of 0–18 CFU/100 mL, reflecting cumulative pollutant loading in downstream reaches. The integration of Strahler stream ordering and cluster-based analytics enabled the identification of pollution hotspots and revealed the critical role of hydrological connectivity in shaping water quality trends. This research contributes a novel spatial–statistical framework for stream-based water quality assessment in East African urban contexts, offering practical insights for catchment-scale pollution control and resource management.