Browsing by Author "Lazaro Kagata,"

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Modeling the role of fertilizers and improved seeds on rice productivity in Tanzania using a stochastic simulation approach
(PLOS One, 2026-08-26) Kadigi, Ibrahim L; Lazaro Kagata,; Sieber, Ibrahim L
Modeling the role of fertilizers and improved seeds on rice productivity in Tanzania using a stochastic simulation approach. Climate change poses a significant threat to food production in Tanzania, particularly for smallholder farmers who rely on rain-fed agriculture. This study examines the role of improved seeds and fertilizers as climate adaptation strategies to boost rice pro-ductivity and food security. Using data from the 2019/20 National Sample Census of Agriculture (NSCA), the study analyzed 6,025 rice farms from Mainland Tanzania and Zanzibar. A Stochastic Simulation model was used to account for yield variability anduncertainty. Farms were classified by seed type (local or improved) and fertilizer use (organic, inorganic, or none). Findings show that using improved seeds with inorganic fertilizers significantly enhances productivity, with a 16% chance of achieving yieldsabove 4.5 t/ha. This combination also reduced the risk of falling below food securitythresholds. In contrast, farms using local seeds, even with fertilizers, had only a 10%chance of reaching that yield level. The impact was more notable in Mainland Tan-zania (25%) than in Zanzibar (6%). While organic fertilizers improve soil health, they offer limited short-term yield gains. The study concludes that promoting access to improved seeds and inorganic fertilizers is crucial for enhancing rice productivity and achieving the SDG 2 goal of Zero Hunger in Tanzania.