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Mbeya University of Science and Technology Repository (MUST Repository) is an open-access digital platform dedicated to the collection, preservation, management, and dissemination of the University’s official scholarly and institutional resources. Authorized by the University and aligned with national academic and research objectives, the repository ensures that valuable institutional knowledge remains securely preserved and easily accessible to researchers, students, staff, and the wider public.
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Recent Submissions
An Interpretable MACD–SCDM Framework for Sepsis Risk Modeling from Longitudinal Laboratory Trajectories
(Electronics, 2026-06-26) Nyatega, Charles o; Adamu, Mohmmed
Early identification of sepsis from electronic health records (EHRs) remains challeng-
ing because longitudinal laboratory measurements are irregularly sampled, incomplete,
and dependent on the observation period. This study presents an interpretable tempo-
ral feature-engineering framework integrating Moving Average Convergence Divergence
(MACD)-based momentum descriptors with a Signal Correlation Decay Measure (SCDM)
representing short-term temporal persistence in longitudinal laboratory trajectories. Using
the MIMIC-IV Clinical Database Demo (v2.2), 275 hospital admissions from 100 unique
patients were screened. Temporal descriptors were derived from lactate, creatinine, white
blood cell count, platelet count, and international normalized ratio. Sepsis status was
defined at the hospital-admission level using prespecified ICD-9-CM and ICD-10-CM diag-
nosis codes, independently of laboratory predictors. Because reliable diagnosis timestamps
were unavailable, the task was formulated as admission-level sepsis risk classification
rather than prediction of time-stamped sepsis onset. Features were constructed over cu-
mulative 0–12 h, 0–18 h, and 0–24 h observation horizons. Lactate was used exclusively
as a predictor. HistGradientBoosting and Logistic Regression were evaluated using re-
peated patient-grouped cross-validation. Predictive performance varied across observation
horizons. Logistic Regression achieved the highest mean AUROC at 24 h (0.711 ± 0.125),
while HistGradientBoosting achieved 0.682 ± 0.139. Feature-set ablation indicated that
MACD-derived descriptors provided the most consistent incremental contribution relative
to conventional features, although their benefit varied by classifier and observation horizon.
Permutation importance further demonstrated horizon-dependent feature relevance, with
lactate-, INR-, platelet-, and WBC-derived descriptors among the highest-ranked predic-tors
TRAJECTORY TRACKING OF QUADROTOR UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE USING PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATION BASED ADAPTIVE SUPERTWISTING SLIDING MODE CONTROL. .
(2026-05-20)
Quadrotor Unmanned Aerial Vehicles are increasingly used in search and res-cue, agriculture, mapping, service delivery, military surveillance, and power line inspection. However, their underactuated dynamics, coupled with parametric un certainties,unmodelled dynamics, and disturbances pose substantial challengesfor robust trajectory tracking and attitude stabilization.Among othersclassical controllers including Proportional Integral Derivatives, Model Predictive Control and Linear Quadratic Regulator offer acceptable perfor-mance but lack robustness under disturbances, and parameter variations. Sliding Mode Control overcomes key limitations of linear controllers with strong robust-ness, however, its main weakness is chattering caused by discontinuous switchingcontrol, which may excite unmodeled dynamics and wear actuator.This work develops a quaternion based dynamic model for quadrotor motion that captures both translational and rotational behavior. Unlike many existing models, the proposed formulation includes unmodeled effects such as aerodynamicdrag and propeller induced forces, resulting in a more realistic and more accurate representation of quadcopter flight dynamics. An Adaptive Super Twisting Sliding Mode Controller (ASTSMC) based on quater- nion modeling was designed such that quaternion representation ensures smooth attitude tracking without gimbal lock, while Super Twisting reduces chattering and improves robustness.M Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to tune the sliding surface gains of the ASTSMC, reducing attitude objective values by 4.43%–27.22% with respectto initial global best value and improving position accuracy by up to 10.62%. The Best Global value drop from 10.49 to 7.66 reflects a 26.97% reduction in combined tracking error and control effort. Gains tuned by PSO yield faster convergence, smoother response, and better performance than manual tuning. The proposed PSO ASTSMC significantly enhances quadrotor trajectory track-ing by reducing attitude errors by up to 27% and improving position accuracy by 0.61%–10.62% relative to a conventional PID and backstepping sliding mode control under identical simulation conditions.
Tracking progress toward livestock sector transformation in Tanzania using national and international datasets
(Kadigi Discover Animals, 2026-08-26) Kadigi, Ibrahim L.
Livestock plays a central role in Tanzania’s rural economy, yet productivity remains constrained by low-input production systems, limited genetic improvement, suboptimal management practices, and weak market integration. This study assesses the extent and pace of livestock-sector transformation using a multi-source approach that integrates FAOSTAT time-series data, the National Sample Census of Agriculture (NSCA), and multi-wave household data from the National Panel Survey (NPS). Descriptive statistics and trend analysis were employed to evaluate changes in livestock productivity, adoption of improved breeds, management practices (vaccination coverage and supplementary feeding), and commercialization, as measured by household participation in purchasing and selling large and small ruminants. Results indicate measurable progress toward livestock transformation, particularly within the cattle subsector. Meat, milk, and hides productivity improved steadily over the study period, accompanied by substantial increases in improved beef and dairy cattle populations. Adoption of improved beef cattle increased more than fourteenfold, while improved dairy cattle populations more than doubled between 2002 and 2020. Management practices also improved, with vaccination coverage among large ruminants increasing from 43.6% to 64.8% and the proportion of farmers purchasing supplementary fodder rising from 11.0% to 18.5% across survey waves. Commercialization likewise strengthened, reflected by increasing proportions of households purchasing and selling cattle and small ruminants, although market participation remained relatively low overall. In contrast, transformation among small ruminants was slower, characterized by fluctuating improved goat populations, lower vaccination uptake, limited supplementary feeding, and weaker commercialization. Overall, the findings indicate that Tanzania’s livestock sector is making measurable progress toward transformation, although advances remain uneven across species and production systems. Policy efforts should prioritize inclusive genetic improvement, strengthened feed and animal health systems, and improved livestock market development to accelerate sustainable transformation
Mathematical modelling of the effects of public health educational campaigns on the transmission dynamics of Taenia solium Taeniasis
(Elsevier Ltd, 2026-07-28) Rwabonaa,Gideon Eustace; Degootc,Abdoelneser; Mirau,Silas
Taenia solium Taeniasis is a zoonotic intestinal infection that poses a significant threat to public health and imposes a substantial economic burden on developing regions, particularly in Sub Saharan Africa. This study formulates and rigorously analyses a deterministic mathematical model, comprised of a system of non-linear ordinary differential equations, to investigate the transmission dynamics of the parasite under the influence of public health education campaigns. Using the next-generation matrix method, we derive the effective reproduction number, 𝑒𝑑, as the fundamental threshold for disease persistence. Stability analysis demonstrates that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when 𝑒𝑑 < 1, ensuring disease eradication, whereas the infection persists and reaches a stable endemic equilibrium when 𝑒𝑑 > 1. Numerical simulations are provided to validate the analytical findings and to explore the parameter space associated with behavioural modification. The results indicate that public health education is a highly effective control measure, capable of significantly reducing prevalence and potentially eliminating T. solium Taeniasis in endemic settings.
Modeling the role of fertilizers and improved seeds on rice productivity in Tanzania using a stochastic simulation approach
(PLOS One, 2026-08-26) Kadigi, Ibrahim L; Lazaro Kagata,; Sieber, Ibrahim L
Modeling the role of fertilizers and improved seeds on rice productivity in Tanzania using a stochastic simulation approach. Climate change poses a significant threat to food production in Tanzania, particularly for smallholder farmers who rely on rain-fed agriculture. This study examines the role of improved seeds and fertilizers as climate adaptation strategies to boost rice pro-ductivity and food security. Using data from the 2019/20 National Sample Census of Agriculture (NSCA), the study analyzed 6,025 rice farms from Mainland Tanzania and Zanzibar. A Stochastic Simulation model was used to account for yield variability anduncertainty. Farms were classified by seed type (local or improved) and fertilizer use (organic, inorganic, or none). Findings show that using improved seeds with inorganic fertilizers significantly enhances productivity, with a 16% chance of achieving yieldsabove 4.5 t/ha. This combination also reduced the risk of falling below food securitythresholds. In contrast, farms using local seeds, even with fertilizers, had only a 10%chance of reaching that yield level. The impact was more notable in Mainland Tan-zania (25%) than in Zanzibar (6%). While organic fertilizers improve soil health, they offer limited short-term yield gains. The study concludes that promoting access to improved seeds and inorganic fertilizers is crucial for enhancing rice productivity and achieving the SDG 2 goal of Zero Hunger in Tanzania.