Dynamical Analysis of Mpox Disease with Environmental Effects
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Date
2025-05-29
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MDPI
Abstract
In this study, we develop a fractional-order mathematical model for investigating
the transmission dynamics of monkeypox (Mpox), accounting for interactions between
humans, rodents, and environmental reservoirs. The model uniquely integrates two key
control strategies—public health awareness and environmental sanitation—often over-
looked in previous models. We analyze the model’s well-posedness by establishing the
existence, uniqueness, and positivity of solutions using the fixed-point theorem. Using data
from the Democratic Republic of Congo, we estimate the model parameters and demon-
strate that the fractional-order model (φ = 0.5) fits real-world data more accurately than its
integer-order counterpart (φ = 1). The sensitivity analysis using partial rank correlation
coefficients highlights the key drivers of disease spread. Numerical simulations reveal that
the memory effects inherent in fractional derivatives significantly influence the epidemic’s
trajectory. Importantly, our results show that increasing awareness (ε) and sanitation efforts
(η) can substantially reduce transmission, with sustained suppression of Mpox when both
parameters exceed 90%. These findings highlight the synergistic impact of behavioral and
environmental interventions in controlling emerging zoonotic diseases.
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This Journal Article of Health Science and Technology was Published by MDPI
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Citation
Helikumi, M.; Ojija, F.; Mhlanga, A. Dynamical Analysis of Mpox Disease with Environmental Effects. Fractal Fract. 2025, 9, 356. https://doi.org/10.3390/ fractalfract9060356