Browsing by Author "Lusekelo ,Eva"

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Modeling the implications of seasonality and heterogeneous mean worm burden in Guinea-worm disease dynamics in dog population.
(Nonlinear Science, 2025-05-09) Lusekelo ,Eva; Daudi ,Salamida; Helikumi , Mlyashimbi; Mushayabasa, Steady
Prior to 2012, it was believed that only humans could host Guinea-worm disease. Recent findings show that dogs also act as hosts. With the 2030 goal for eradicating Guinea-worm approaching, understanding dogs’ roles is crucial. We develop a mathematical model to study seasonal Guinea-worm disease, focusing on dogs as primary hosts, given the low human cases. Our model includes seasonal variations, as previous studies indicate that disease prevalence is linked to seasonal fisheries. We also categorize infectious dogs based on their average worm burden. Our analysis examines how dog screening and tethering influence disease dynamics. Results indicate that both strategies can lower disease transmission. However, they may not be enough for total eradication on their own. Therefore, we suggest combining these methods with additional actions, like dog culling, to improve disease control.