Browsing by Author "Lusekelo Eva, Helikumi Mlyashimbi, Daudi Salamida"

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A delayed fractional-order model of Ebola virus disease with human behavioral dynamics
(Elsevier, 2026-05-20) Lusekelo Eva, Helikumi Mlyashimbi, Daudi Salamida
This study presents a fractional-order mathematical model to examine the transmission dynamics of Ebola Virus Disease, explicitly incorporating incubation delays, human behavioral responses, and socio-cultural funeral practices. Caputo fractional derivatives are employed to represent memory effects, capturing the complex temporal evolution of outbreaks. Conditions for the local stability of disease-free and endemic equilibria are derived. Numerical bifurcation analysis indicates that increasing the incubation delay 𝜏 beyond a critical threshold 𝜏∗ ≈ 2.5 days induces a Hopf bifurcation, resulting in sustained oscillations in infection levels. Additionally, increasing 𝜏 from 1 to 3 days delays the epidemic peak by approximately 10 days and elevates peak infections from 1200 to over 10,000 cases. The model further demonstrates that higher proportions (𝑝1 > 0.4) of unmonitored deaths due to socio-cultural burial practices increase the outbreak size by 35%, highlighting the importance of cultural interventions. The fractional order 𝑞 influences oscillatory behaviors; as 𝑞 approaches 1, peak infection levels rise by 20%. These findings emphasize the significance of integrating cultural, behavioral, and delay effects into Ebola control strategies.