Modelling Campylobacteriosis Dynamics: Impacts of Contaminated Animal Products and Environmental Decontamination Interventions
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Date
2025-09-01
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ELSEVIER
Abstract
Campylobacteriosis is responsible for approximately 500 million cases of illness globally each
year. Globally, human campylobacteriosis infections and contaminated animal products cause
an estimated loss of 8.6 and 12.6 billion US dollars annually, respectively. The disease is
transmitted through consumption of contaminated foods and water, licking unsanitary hands
and contact with infected hosts. As global demand for animal products like meat and milk
continues to grow, the transmission of campylobacteriosis through these products has become
a critical concern. This study aims at utilising mathematical modelling and analysis techniques
to quantify the effects of contaminated animal products and environmental decontamination
interventions on campylobacteriosis dynamics in host populations. A mathematical model as a
system of ordinary differential equations is proposed with human and cattle populations and
contaminated animal products. The next-generation matrix method is applied to compute the
effective reproduction number that describes disease persistence and extinction. The global
stability of equilibria states is examined using the Lyapunov stability theory. The uncertainty
and sensitivity of model parameters are examined using the Latin Hypercube Sampling and
Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient methods. Model fitting and parameter estimations are
performed using the least squares method alongside the human cases from January to August
for the years 2017 to 2020 in the EU. The analysis indicates that the disease-free and endemic
equilibria are globally asymptotically stable whenever < 1 and > 1, respectively. The
numerical results show that the ingestion rates of contaminated animal products, shedding rates
and the natural replication rates of Campylobacter jejuni bacteria are directly proportional to
, while the environmental cleanliness and the decay rate of Campylobacter jejuni bacteria are
inversely proportional to . In order to reduce the impact of contaminated animal products,
the study recommends a couple of strategies for reducing shedding rates, killing bacteria, and
vaccinating infected hosts.
Description
This Journal article was published by ELSEVIER in 2025