A mathematical model of HCV transmission dynamics with sex stratification and environmental effects
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Date
2025-12-01
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
PLOS one
Abstract
This study primarily aims to determine how sex-specific behaviors influence Hepatitis
C Virus (HCV) transmission dynamics among people who inject drugs (PWID),
and to identify key parameters and interventions that most effectively reduce infection
prevalence. Despite the availability of effective treatment, HCV remains a major
public health challenge particularly among PWID, with sex-specific differences influencing
the transmission dynamics. In this study, we developed a sex-structured
deterministic mathematical model to investigate HCV transmission through contaminated
needles, focusing on gender-specific patterns among PWID. Unlike previous
models, our work separates transmission by sex and also captures differences
between high-risk and low-risk injecting behavior through transmission and needle
reuse parameters.The model classifies the population into distinct HCV related compartments
for both males and females, while also incorporating an environmental
pool of contaminated needles. We computed and analyzed the systems reproduction
threshold and steady states, identifying conditions under which the disease persists
and scenarios where backward bifurcation may occur. Sensitivity analysis identified
the most influential factors on acute infection prevalence, such as rates of needle
contamination, sex-specific contact behaviors, and recovery outcomes among males.
Simulation results show that males experience a higher burden of acute and chronic
HCV infections. Increasing the viral decay rate in needles leads to a notable decline
in infections, highlighting the effectiveness of environmental interventions like needle
sterilization. Additionally, reducing risky behaviors in both sexes produces the
largest overall reduction in transmission, while improving needle exchange efforts by
lowering the reuse of uncontaminated needles further suppresses disease spread.
Our findings highlight the need for integrated harm reduction with enough, gender
PLOS
Description
This Journal Article was Published PLOS one in 2025